Futures studies or foresight (previously known as futurology) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlay them. — Wikipedia (2010)


Raising Interest Rates Is Like Starting a Fission Chain Reaction

Posted by Gail Tverberg of ourfiniteworld.com Central bankers seem to think that adjusting interest rates is a nice little tool that they can easily handle. The problem is that higher interest rates affect the economy in many ways simultaneously. The lessons that … Continue reading


The average age of the world’s great civilizations

The average age of the world’s great civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to … Continue reading


US Stocks Update 19022018

US stocks have entered a consolidation phase with falls recording thousand point moves. The size of the falls merely reflects the size and scale of the up move. The market is working off some of the bullish sentiment and flushing … Continue reading


Average age of world’s great civilizations from the beginning of history

The average age of the world’s great civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to … Continue reading


Gold Update 19112017

Gold has continued to consolidate in a large sideways holding pattern focused around US$1300, disappointing bulls and bears alike. The failure of gold to rally to the US$1527 area prompted us to reconsider our second alternative in mid September. That … Continue reading


China – the biggest paradigm shift in a century?

By Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts next week It will be the single biggest event this year, of unprecedented significance Xi will cement his position … Continue reading


Buy Oil With Gold-Backed Currency—Bypassing US Petrodollars

In a second ground shaking move in a week, China has moved to introduce yuan denominated oil futures contracts. Settlement may be in yuan or gold. This has huge long term ramifications for the US dollar as world’s reserve currency. … Continue reading


German Federal Election 2017 Outcome

Germany’s Federal election 2017, is due to be held this Sunday 24th September. It could prove illuminating about the political fortunes of Germany and the EU at large. Don’t hold your breath however. It looks like more of the same. … Continue reading


Financial Markets Update 20092017

The US Federal Reserve concludes its two day meeting later today. It’s timely to recap where we are with market activity and our long term picture we call The End of the Long Game 2009-2018. The Fed will be signalling … Continue reading


The Coming Four D’s

Over the last 17 years we have witnessed an increasing loss of confidence by voters in liberal democratic governments around the world. The 17 years have truly exposed the fact that politicians have personal agendas beyond serving the needs of … Continue reading


The Coming Four D’s

Emerging Events examines The Coming Four D’s where Deleveraging, Deregulation, Deflation and Decentralization become the driving forces of change in liberal-democratic nations around the world. The article focuses on Australia which exemplifies many of the problems liberal-democratic nations face today. … Continue reading


BitCoin Prediction

Bitcoin is completing its final consolidation phase prior to a final blow off move. The market for Bitcoin has risen in a parabolic pattern (think 1929 US stock market, Tulip Bulb Craze, Gold in 1980). In chart terms this leads … Continue reading


Ray Kurzweil Predicts Technology Will End Nation States

 Countries Are Over By Dyani Sabin The age of individual countries is over, says futurist Ray Kurzweil. In a video posted to Kurzweil’s Singularity University Youtube account, the Google-employed futurist talks about how technology has already started to merge the … Continue reading


Political Risk 2 – Reflections

We reported (04/06/2017) prior to the UK General Election 2017: There is a minor risk of a hung parliament where, like 2010, the new government may have to collaborate to hold office. This would make managing the Brexit process untenable. The … Continue reading


Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species

Elon Musk’s vision on getting to live on Mars.


This is how Big Oil will die

Seth Miller Scientist, inventor, entrepreneur. Mostly just trying to understand the world. See my full blog at perspicacity.xyz. May 24  From WHMP / clipart.com It’s 2025, and 800,000 tons of used high strength steel is coming up for auction. The steel … Continue reading


How Small Events Trigger Large Events in Politics & Economics

The following video illustrates the power of small events to trigger large events. The Great Depression of 1929-33  was triggered, for example, by the default of a small bank in Austria called Creditanstalt. It declared bankruptcy on 11 May 1931 and was one … Continue reading


Political Risk in 2017-2018

In the UK, the conservatives it appears, will win a reduced majority to govern the UK and Brexit process. It is also clear that a loss or hung parliament  for the Conservatives will set the UK back a hundred years politically and economically … Continue reading


Late in the Cycle

You know where we are in the business cycle when you start receiving calls about multi-level marketing schemes or offshore stock brokers call to offer a “trade of a life-time”. Maybe its a property deal in outback Australia, or opportunities … Continue reading


US stocks to rally. Wait for It!

Since mid March 2017, US stock indices have been moving sideways in a slow meandering phase. There’s more to go before this phase completes. This sets up a pattern or determinacy that leads to a clear outcome and conclusion. You … Continue reading