Futures studies or foresight (previously known as futurology) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlay them. — Wikipedia (2010)


Contrary Opinion and Australian Elections

As political risk increases in all liberal democratic countries we can expect to see the contrary opinion factor playing a greater role in evaluating risk in elections and other important events. One example is of course Brexit, while a close … Continue reading


Brexit Impact 2016

Should the “leave” vote win the coming UK referendum you can expect the impact to have global consequences. It will challenge the survivability of the EU. At the same time it will create massive flights of capital around the world as … Continue reading


Australian Political Elections 2016

It seems Australian voters want another “hung parliament”. The main parties are both doing their best to lose winning government. Little they say offers any resonance with voters. The Australian electorate is deeply cynical of its politicians and none of … Continue reading


Crude Oil Recovers

Crude has recovered nicely and will continue to build a recover to our next resistance level around the US$70 per barrel. Significant resistance operates at this level.


The Structure of Collapse: 2016-2019

Charles Hugh Smith writing on his blog Of Two Minds: The end-state of unsustainable systems is collapse. Though collapse may appear to be sudden and chaotic, we can discern key structures that guide the processes of collapse. Though the subject … Continue reading


Why Globalization Reaches Limits

Gail Tverberg writes: We have been living in a world of rapid globalization, but this is not a condition that we can expect to continue indefinitely. Figure 1. Ratio of Imported Goods and Services to GDP. Based in FRED data … Continue reading


Crude Oil Lows?

We are still waiting confirmation that crude oil prices have completed their forecast lows. Notwithstanding one more low, potentially down to our target of US$12 per barrel, we anticipate the recovery of the oil market. We expect oil prices to … Continue reading


The top 10 sharing economy predictions for 2016, by the experts

Future Predictions by Experts. What is changing? The sharing movement is evolving quickly and in many directions. The growth of platform and worker co-ops, increased awareness of the commons, the evolution of coworking, an explosion of tech-enabled sharing services, and … Continue reading


Global Warming and its Economic Risks

Benjamin Hulac looks into the impact of global warming on the economic side. Climate change is the most severe global economic risk of 2016, the World Economic Forum said yesterday. The nonprofit economic analysis institution, set to convene next week in … Continue reading


Former Fed Economist: Regulators May Be Aiding and Abetting Banks in Not Writing Down Their Bad Energy Loans

Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank economist, Gerald O’Driscoll, writes in WSJ : Pundits are focused on collapsing oil prices, which reflect the technological revolution in production among nimble private producers, combined with weakening global demand for their product. The result has … Continue reading


Ideological divisions in Economics undermine its Value to the Public

In October Russell Roberts, a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution,tweeted that if told an economist’s view on one issue, he could confidently predict his or her position on any number of other questions. Prominent bloggers on economics have … Continue reading


Global Warming or is NOAA is Messing with Temperature Data Collection?

Climatologist Patrick J, Michaels writes in WSJ: An East Coast blizzard howling, global temperatures peaking, the desert Southwest flooding, drought-stricken California drying up—surely there’s a common thread tying together this “extreme” weather. There is. But it has little to do … Continue reading


Mapping Russia’s Strategy

GEORGE FRIEDMAN looks at Russia’s strategy going forward and its impact on geopolitics. Russia is in a geographically vulnerable position; its core is inherently landlocked, and the choke points that its ships would have to traverse to gain access to oceans … Continue reading


Why Big Banks are So Interested in the Blockchain Technolgy

It turns out that the blockchain technology (which drives Bitcoin) creates an environment that is easy for government to track transactions. Blythe Masters, former major player at JPMorgan, left the bank to start the blockchain firm Digital Asset Holdings. Masters … Continue reading


Thomas Sowell – Cultural Prerequisites for Developing Wealth

From Uncommon Knowledge, host Peter Robinson questions Professor Sowell about the relationship of culture and wealth explained in his new book, “Wealth, Poverty and Politics, An International Perspective.” http://www.LibertyPen.com Source: EconomicPolicyJournal.com


Oil Oversupply

National Commercial Bank looks at the impact of oversupply of oil. Elevated production levels, decelerating demand, and record high inventories will suppress oil prices to an average of $50/bbl in 2016, the National Commercial Bank (NCB) said in its latest … Continue reading


What is afflicting Famous Economists

Jonathan Newman looks at what is afflicting Famous Economists ( Paul Krugman). There’s a new trend among famous economists, from Krugman to Cowen. It was started by Adam Ozimek with a simple question: “Has a single economics study changed your mind on an important … Continue reading


High Risk Stock Market Situation

The US stock market has the potential for large, rapid falls over the next couple of weeks. As long as the DJIA stays above 11258 (SP500 1219.8) the market remains in a correction phase. Completion of the selloff phase above … Continue reading


The power of population

Bernard Salt, Partner with KPMG writes: Australia is growing three times faster than China. That’s good for the economy. The Australian economy may well be suffering from cut-backs in mining and manufacturing activity but this nation has a secret weapon. … Continue reading


Strategy for Industrial Revolution

World Economic Forum insight report on Global Challenges. The impact of technological, demographic and socio-economic disruptions on business models will be felt in transformations to the employment landscape and skills requirements, resulting in substantial challenges for recruiting, training and managing … Continue reading