Peter Twigg CEO, Founder
Welcome to emergingevents.com! My name is Peter Twigg and I’m the CEO and founder of this website.
My interest in futurism began as a teenager when I first read Alvin Toffler’s book “Future Shock”. My interest in futurism always stayed. I have watched over the years as techniques of futurism have also grown and become more sophisticated.
Futurism is by nature probabilistic and at any one time there are multiple scenarios running. It would also be fair to say that humans are subject to degrees of determinism. There is an interplay between these determinisms of varying degree that create patterns of behaviour that show potential future pathways.
Despite these determinisms however, humans have free will and the capacity to overcome the obstacles and circumstances of their existence. This website helps people to make sense of the present, understand the past and plan for the future in order that they may overcome the determinancies of their lives.
One of the key drivers of the predictions you read on this website is the fundamental tenet that “social mood drive social events”. Most people will have the perception that it is the other way around but when you really get that social mood determines social events, all sorts of possibilities for prediction emerge.
In particular I am indebted to 2 people who have shaped my futurism vision, the first being Ralph Elliott who in the 1930s discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognisable patterns. The second is Robert Prechter Jr. who took up Elliott’s work and was able to elaborate that further in the 1990s into the emerging new science of Socionomics.
On this central premise that “social mood drives social events” we apply rigorous modelling techniques and statistical analysis from which to form our predictions. In addition to socionomics we also use a lot of technical tools from financial markets, game theory and other standard futurist tools to define predictions.
We’re not so interested in the day-to-day events that you read about in any newspaper – the froth and bubble of world events except only as confirmation of emerging trends. As we define a trend so we are able to predict with degrees of probability that certain types of events will happen. That means we do not predict major non human events like natural disasters, deaths or the events occurring in individuals lives. The important thing for us is the trend with which people, nations and events are heading and the determinancies that shape them.
Finally it is my hope that if we make accurate predictions that illustrate some of the follies of humankind, maybe, just maybe, humanity can avoid the repetition of history with its wars, poverty and suffering. Then maybe humanity can realise its full potential and that suffering is a thing of the past.
Thank you for taking the time to look at this website. I hope you will find it informative and illuminating and worthy of subscribing.