The recent sideways trading band (104.12-100.74) and lasting four months for the US$/Yen is finishing up it’s final stages. The next move will be a rapid test of 100 followed by a continued move to 96.55-94.00.
A population of workers with an average age of around 35 combined with the arrival of a new government may be pulling Incredible India to where, at last, its population and vigor may carry it aloft. Like China in the early 80’s and 90’s, India has the potential to achieve rapid growth. But due to lack of political will, religious divisions, corruption, poverty, a massive overhang of the post-colonial era when Marxist-socialist solutions were the fashion and lack of capital, India’s progress has been slow.
The analogy is of an aircraft taking off. The back wheels are still on the ground but the nose has lifted up. This has been the case for some time with the deadweight of the various factors holding her back. This is about to change. Continue reading
There are four Grand Narratives at work in our time. They are:
In the coming years these narratives will shift to include: Continue reading
Sign of the times – the S&P500 is 30% above its 200 day moving average. This has never happened, ever before in the entire history of the the US stock market. The move signifies the effect US money printing is having on the stock market.
The stock market is in effect experiencing a bubble. In economics a bubble always brings grief when it pops. All bubbles pop. Money printing brings rising prices but does not promote more economic activity, more employment or increases in GDP. Despite the money printing of the last few years US economic growth remains stagnant. Continue reading
Chapter XX: Interest, Credit Expansion, The Trade Cycle, § 8 : The Monetary or Circulation Theory of the Trade Cycle (Picture: http://speaklibertynow.com/2013/06/02/recovery-crash/)
Watch for strengthening in the US dollar over the short term followed by a spike down (weakening). Expect gold and silver to reflect this movement. The spike down in US dollars, (up in gold and silver) will be a fake play before the resumption of the major long term trend (strong US dollars). Anticipate news supporting this event such as a major announcement. Continue reading
Futurist Thomas Frey writes on the Eight Critical Value Points of a Futurist:
As a Futurist, people often ask me how many of my predictions have come true. I find this to be a rather uncomfortable question. It’s uncomfortable, not because my track record hasn’t been up to par (actually, a high percentage have come true), but because accuracy of predictions is a poor way of measuring the value of a Futurist. Continue reading